Reality Check

August 22

Have you been watching the Democrat debates for President? I’ve struggled to watch more than a few clips here or there, but the radical leftward shift is startling as the candidates trample over each other to see who can be more anti-science, anti-freedom, or anti-common sense.

But, here’s the reality: each of the main candidates running is currently beating President Trump in the polls.

Now, I cannot tell you how many times that reality elicits a “but the polls are wrong…” sort of retort. Yet, here’s the question: how wrong were they in 2016?

Here are just a few examples where polling I key states was fairly close to the actual outcome in a razor thin election:

  • In Ohio, Trump won by 8.1% with the final poll predicting him winning by 7%. (Despite earlier differences and with the number of polls tapering off in the final days, the consensus showed Trump ultimately winning the swing state.)
  • In Florida, averages showed Trump winning by 0.4%, and he won by 1.2%.
  • There were 3 polls in Pennsylvania taken entirely in November. Those showed Clinton winning by 2, Trump winning by 1, and a tie. Trump won by 0.7%
  • North Carolina’s final average showed Trump winning by 0.8%, and he won by 3.6%.
  • The RCP averages in Michigan showed Clinton up by 3.6% when Trump ultimately won by 0.3%. The final public poll showed Trump winning by 2.
  • In Wisconsin, public polling ceased in the days leading up to the election, but they showed Clinton leading by an average of 6.5% when Trump won by 0.7%, the single greatest outlier.
  • Nevada averages actually showed Trump winning by 0.8%, but Clinton won by 2.4.
  • In Virginia, the average was almost dead on – indicating a 5.3% Clinton win before she exceeded that number by 0.1%.
  • Clinton also slightly outperformed polls – though still losing – in Arizona where she was projected to lose by 4 but lost by 3.5%.
  • She also did better in New Mexico – where final polling showed her winning by 2 before she won by 8.3%. Other polls were slightly better, but the gap appeared to be closing in the final days.
  • Additionally, Colorado exceeded Clinton’s expectations when she won by 4.9%, despite polling averages putting it at 3.
  • In Minnesota, polling was limited, but Trump significantly outperformed public polls.
  • And, here in Georgia, the RCP average had Trump winning by 4.8% when he won by 5.1.

Contrary to the narrative, the polls weren’t way off in 2016. Trump clearly had momentum going into Election Day, and he really only strongly outperformed public polling (by a margin of greater than 4%) in Minnesota (where he did, ultimately, lose), Wisconsin, and Ohio (where he was projected to win).

So, why is this important? Well, when President Trump – the only pro-life candidate running for POTUS – declares polling to be invalid and his supporters follow suit, we run a real risk of shrugging off a very real threat. And, in case you aren’t following the liberal candidates closely, here’s what they are saying:

  • On her website – where candidates are supposed to put their most thoughtful, less inflammatory rhetoric – Kamala Harris, the candidate endorsed by Georgia Democrat leader Rep. Bob Trammell, pledges to “nominate judges who know Roe v. Wade is the law of the land” and “protect Planned Parenthood from Republican attempts to defund essential health services.” Additionally, she touts that “when many Democrats supported civil unions, [she] was marrying same-sex couples at San Francisco City Hall.” Further, she identifies Trump’s nominees as “anti-LGBTQ+,” pledges to impose the LGBTQ+ agenda on those with “religious beliefs,” and to “fight to pass the Equality Act.”
  • On his website, Bernie Sanders vows to “oppose all efforts to undermine or overturn Roe v. Wade, and appoint federal judges who will uphold women’s most fundamental rights.” Further, he wants to “fully fund Planned Parenthood” and pass the pro-abortion “Equal Rights Amendment.” He also holds a firmly anti-science position and calls laws protecting life, “draconian.” The socialist senator also has a page for LGBT+ issues where he pledges to “pass the Equality Act” and “strongly oppose any legislation that purports to ‘protect’ religious liberty.”
  • Elizabeth Warren focuses her website on her central theme of, essentially, “power to the people,” but one needs to look no further than her radical statement on the abortion issue – pledging to “create federal, statutory rights that parallel the constitutional right in Roe v. Wade.” She goes further to vow to “pass federal laws to preempt state efforts that functionally limit access to reproductive healthcare” (which is how she sickeningly defines abortion), and she discusses the numerous ways she wants to open up federal funding for abortion. Her full statement can be found HERE. She also has a long record of being anti-religious freedom and pro-LGBTQ+ agenda.
  • Interestingly, Joe Biden also declines to address abortion or the LGBTQ+ agenda among his main issues, but he has a long record of being against us (and, where he was once right, he’s flip-flopped since). Moreover, he’s running as Barack Obama’s heir apparent and goofily claiming to be his “BFF”. A “third Obama term” could bring even more devastation to the First Amendment, biological truth, the nature of the family, and the paramount right to life than the first two!

So, my first reason for my email is to provide a reality check. While polling could be off some, there is little reason to think it’s off enough to consider Trump’s path to re-election anything but tenuous at best. We must take the threat of one of these radical leftists, who would work relentlessly to undermine any pro-family gains, very seriously.

My second reason, however, is to provide hope. The outcome of the 2016 election was decided because of the energy and last-minute unity of the faith community. Voters like you made the difference! And, with the 2016 election roughly 15 months away, you have even more time to make the difference now!

The last 2.5 years haven’t been perfect, and we have a president that is far from perfect. Yet, the overall direction of our nation, the respect accorded to faith, and the protections given to life are markedly different – in a positive direction – than the one we were so close to seeing continue. As we move toward November 2020, let’s take the threat seriously, roll up our sleeves, and work to continue this progress.

For Victory,

Cole Muzio
President and Executive Director

PS. We are working together nationally to achieve victories throughout the country in 2020. To support this cause, please consider a generous gift today.